Monday, November 30, 2009

2010 All-Prospect Team

Please see The Baseball Chronicle's "2010 TOP 200 Prospects" List and Rankings posted prior to these past three articles. Top 200 Prospects can be accessed via archives on the right side of the page-- the Top 200 Prospects are featured in the first three posts of November 2009.



The following teams are comprised of the most well-rounded, athletic and major-league-ready prospects currently in the minors. The first team is a list of the most talented and polished MiLB players available, while the "Futures" roster is a list of younger prospects with the highest ceilings and strongest chances of reaching them.

Lineup

CF- Desmond Jennings
C- Buster Posey
RF- Jason Heyward
3B- Pedro Alvarez
DH- Jesus Montero
LF-Michael Taylor
1B- Justin Smoak
SS-Reid Brignac
2B-Starlin Castro

The Rays' Desmond Jennings would lead off with his plus-plus baserunning and speed, and would offer good range in center. Buster Posey would be a nice 2 hitter with his ability to make contact and advanced two-strike approach. Posey has enough speed to go first-to-third rather easily and will be one of the few MLB catchers to not clog the basepaths. Ultimate prospect, the A-T-L's Jason Heyward, has the best mix of tools on the roster. Heyward features the power to hit cleanup, the bat to hit at the top of the order and the speed to distract pitchers while on the base-paths. The Pirates' Pedro Alvarez would employ his monster bat and bat clean-up, while playing a decent third base. Montero would be in the five hole to utilize his light-tower power and advanced bat. Taylor would be a great 6 hitter with his ability to make contact and possibly steal 10-20 bases annually. Smoak would hit 7th, using a polished bat and an advanced glove in the field to contribute. Rays infielder, Reid Brignac would start at shortstop as he has developed in to being the best all-around shortstop in the minors. Brignac isn't spectacular, but his combination of a nice glove and the ability to hit a tick below .300 with 12-18 home runs annually, is better than the alternative offers from a weak crop of young middle-infielders. Cubs' shortstop, Starlin Castro, would round out the order at second base- an area that would utilize his range and would soften the blow of his strong-but-wild throws. His speed and ability to make contact could hit 2 at the top of the order.


Bench
C- Carlos Santana
OF-Fernando Martinez
OF- Domonic Brown
Util-Todd Frazier
INF-Alcides Escobar

Carlos Santana has the ability to be a very good MLB starting catcher with the stick, and has the arm to keep base-runners honest. Fernando Martinez has showed flashes of his supposed brilliance--primarily in a short 2009 stint in AAA, and could fill in at all three outfield positions and offer advanced power. Domonic Brown needs to develop more power to be a true top-prospect, but has the size and tools to be Brian Jordan. Todd Frazier is position-less, but has the tools and versatility to play everywhere on the diamond besides pitcher and catcher. Alcides Escobar is the most defensively advanced shortstop in the minors, and has enough speed to make up for his powerless and patience-lacking game at the plate.

Rotation
RHP- Stephen Strasburg
RHP- Neftali Feliz
RHP- Wade Davis
LHP- Brian Matusz
RHP- Aaron Crow

Nationals' pitcher Stephen Strasburg has the fastball and power-slider to be the best pitcher in the game. Neftali Feliz dazzled fans in Arlington last summer with his 100mph fastball and has the ability to be an ace very soon. Wade Davis is the most polished pitcher on this last (besides Strasburg) and has the fastball and curve to be a tick behind Josh Beckett. Brian Matusz has an unspectacular fastball but has the changeup, curve and control to be the AL's version of Cole Hamels. Aaron Crow is the second oldest player in the rotation but with the least amount of experience playing professionally. Still, Crow has proven a lot against metal bats in college and has the fastball/slider combo to be the middle portion of a 1-2-3 punch with Greinke and Meche.

Bullpen
CL- Aroldis Chapman
SU-Drew Storen
SU- Phillippe Aumont
MR- Dan Runzler
MR- Chris Withrow
LHP- Christian Friedrich

Slotting Chapman in at Closer is a bold move considering his serious lack of experience playing professionally in the US, but Chapman's 94-98 mph fastball and good breaking stuff (from the left side) make him seriously close to Billy Wagner in ability. Drew Storen doesn't quite have the heat to be a top-tier closer, but does have an intelligent approach and a very good slider. Aumont is a bit of a mystery, but since being converted to relief, seems to have retained the ceiling he had as a younger starter. Dodgers' Chris Withrow has a fastball that can sniff 100mph but lacks the control to be a 6 inning starter in the MLB. Dan Runzler is one of the most developed relievers in the minors and could offer the Giants an alternative to Brian Wilson in 2010. Christian Friedrich will be a starter in the majors, but his fantastic curveball will give him the ability to dominate lefties at every level.

Manager- "Super" Joe McEwing

"Super Joe" spent much of his career filling the utility role for a variety of teams including the Mets and Cardinals. His blue-collar work ethic and high-energy approach to playing the game make him both a favorite of his players and of a number of scouts at Baseball America. After assuming a new job as hitting coach with the Charlotte Knights in 2008, Super Joe took over as manager for the Winston-Salem Dash in 2009 and ended up being named the Top Managerial Prospect in the South Atlantic League by Baseball America by season's end. His grit and dedication to practice didn't push his career OPS over .660, but it did make him the anti-Allen Iverson in a number of ways--and for young players that actually need practice, that will mean a lot.

Futures Team

Lineup

LF- Ryan Westmoreland
2B- Dustin Ackley
CF-Donovan Tate
RF- Michael Stanton
DH- Chris Carter
1B- Mike Moustakas
C- Derek Norris
3B-Matt Dominguez
SS- Jose Iglesias

Red Sox outfielder Ryan Westmoreland has the tools to be Grady Sizemore as long as he can avoid the array injuries that kept him at DH in 2009. The no. 2 overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, Dustin Ackley, has one of the most advanced bats in the minors but with such a slight frame may never develop the power to hit more than 15-20 home runs in the MLB. Ackley is being converted to a second baseman by the Mariners, and his plus speed, range and athleticism should keep him there. The Padres' Donovan Tate has one of the highest ceilings in the minors. Tate has the speed to steal 40 bases annually in the MLB (maybe 50-60) and the bat to hit 40 homeruns (with necessary work on his bat control). The young outfielder also has the range and arm to win multiple Gold Gloves. Marlins RF Michael Stanton has the most impressive homerun power currently in the minors, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts and improve his patience, he could easily surpass his Jermaine Dye comparisons. Oakland's Chris "Vernon" Carter has the raw power to be an impressive power threat on a team in dire need of one. Carters arm is plus, but his other defensive tools are poor. The Royals' Mike Moustakas has the glove to stay at third, but could be an advanced first baseman in the MLB. Moustakas has disappointed thus far, (some speculating his underachieving is due to durability issues and a pull-happy batting approach) but most scouts still firmly believe that he has a very good chance at developing in to a star ballplayer. The Nationals' Derek Norris has shown patience beyond his years, and after a breakout 2009, Norris has convinced many at Baseball America that he could be the long term answer to Jesus Flores' shoulder woes. The Marlins Matt Dominguez is regularly compared to a young Mike Lowell, featuring one of the best gloves at 3B in the minors and the power to hit 30 homers in the MLB. Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias is often compared to Orlando Cabrera and has the glove to be a top defensive infielder in the AL.

Bench
C/3B- Will Myers
Util- Brett Lawrie
MI- Tim Beckham
OF- Aaron Hicks
CI/OF- James Darnell

Catcher and third baseman Will Myers can throw a low 90's fastball and is already ranked as the no.1 prospect in the Pioneer League by Baseball America for 2010. Brett Lawrie has the forearms and hands to hit near .300 and mash 20-30 homeruns in the MLB if he continue to develop in the minors throughout the next few years. Lawrie is lauded for his advanced approach at the plate and athleticism, but still has yet to secure and develop a defensive position that he could hold in the MLB. Shortstop Tim Beckham has the tools of a no.1 pick (hence the Rays' drafting him no.1 last year), but has shown little thus far. Aaron Hicks can throw a 98 mph fastball and has the tools and future of an MLB gold glover. His bat hasn't showed as much promise, but still projects to be MLB-caliber. James Darnell was one of the poorest fielding third baseman in the minors in 2009, but his power, bat, patience and athleticism have made him a top prospect.

Rotation
LHP- Martin Perez
LHP- Madison Bumgarner
RHP- Jarrod Parker
RHP- Julio Teheran
LHP- Casey Crosby

With his 94 mph fastball and developing circle-change, the Rangers' Martin Perez has drawn some Johan Santana comparisons lately. Madison Bumgarner has the control and polish of an MLB Ace already, but needs to develop the secondary stuff and find the velocity that he has recently lost on his fastball if he wants to fulfill the Giants' hopes of his future as a true MLB ace. The Diamondbacks' Jarrod Parker is set to recover from Tommy John surgery for all of 2010, but still has the ability and ceiling of a top-tier starter. The young (and scrawny) Julio Teheran has a hard fastball and a nice changeup, and has developed into an intriguing and often dominating pitcher. Lefty Casey Crosby has come back from TJ surgery with a mid 90s fastball and is poised to become a dominant pitcher in the MLB.

CL- Tanner Scheppers
SU- Kyle Drabek
SU-Jake Arrieta
MR- Jason Knapp
MR- Alex White
LHP-Jake McGee

If Tanner Scheppers can avoid the shoulder woes that have cost him millions of dollars thus far into his career, he could wield his power fastball and impressive breaking stuff to become a back-of-the-bullpen force, or a dominant starter. Kyle Drabek has one of the best breaking balls in the minors, and has a low-to-mid nineties fastball. Orioles Jake Arrieta has a good, hard, fastball but his lack of another plus pitch could land him in the bullpen. Indians' Jason Knapp has a power mid-to-high nineties fastball and an intimidating frame, but conditioning issues might send him to the bullpen within the next few years. If Knapp can't gain control of his body, he could still develop in to a closer or set-up man. Alex White is an impressive young pitcher and has the secondary stuff to be middle of the rotation starter on a contender in the MLB. Lefty Jake McGee returned from TJ surgery by the end of the 2009 season, and showed that his 93-95 mph fastball and plus to plus-plus secondary stuff still has enough on it to make him a closer or a good starter in the MLB.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

The Baseball Chronicle's Top American League Fielders 2009

Please view my Top Prospects 2009 1-200, posted earlier in November 2009.


The American League players to take home Gold Gloves this year were as follows:

C: Joe Mauer, Twins
1B: Mark Teixeira, Yankees
2B: Placido Polanco, Tigers
3B: Evan Longoria, Rays
SS: Derek Jeter, Yankees
OF: Torii Hunter, Angels
OF: Adam Jones, Orioles
OF: Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
P: Mark Buehrle, White Sox

While many of the above players deserved their Gold Gloves, many earned them due to popularity, an exciting style of defensive play, and possibly as a measure to bring some light to their hapless small-market/struggling team, coming off of a dismal 2009 campaign where fans had little to be happy about. Below is a The Baseball Chronicle's list to of top defensive players in the American League. Each player is judged only upon their defensive prowess--not their popularity, career or value as a marketing tool for a lemon of a product.

Catcher: Gerald Laird, Detroit Tigers- In my opinion, Joe Mauer is the most complete and valuable player in both leagues, and his strong arm and game calling ability would put him atop the league in most years. But the fact is, Mauer barely caught 2/3 of the season, his CS% was down due to a bunch of soft tossers, and he allowed 9 passed balls. Laird in comparison, gave up 9 passed balls in 150 more innings of work, had a higher fielding percentage and thew out nearly 42% of runners attempting to steal.

First Base: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees- Teixeira earned his Gold Glove and was an easy pick. Although he wasn't atop the league in UZR, his fielding percentage was untouchable, and his sparkling glove, stretch and turn-around ballet tag was visual poetry for Yankees fans watching the playoffs. Jeter, A-Rod and Cano all benefitted subtantially from Teixeira's glove; Jeter saw his errors lop in nearly in half from to just 8 in 2009, giving him the highest fielder percentage of any shortstop in the AL. A-Rod had his best fielding year since converting to third and Robinso Cano saw his non-chalant three-hopper qualify for an out far more often than it did during the Giambi administration.

Second Base: Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers- Dustin Pedroia is the best fielding second baseman in the AL, but Placido Polanco simply outplayed him with the glove in 2009. Polanco led the AL in UZR, made a miniscule 2 errors in 1289.1 innings, exhibited range behind only Pedroia and Ian Kinsler, and was the best statistically the best at the double play.

Third Base: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays- Longoria is simply the best defensive third baseman in the AL. The Angels' Chone Figgins was a close second due to his superior range, but Longoria is the most complete package-- with an A-Rod Arm, plus-range and the most reliable glove in the AL.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers- Derek Jeter is my favorite player, and has been since I began watching baseball nearly a decade-and-a-half ago-- and his glove this year was one of the better ones in the MLB. But, Jeter's AL-leading UZR was a product of his unusually high fielding percentage, not a newfound range, arm or accuracy at 35 years old. Derek was solid, but Mark Teixeira really won two gold gloves in 2009--one for himself and one for Derek. Andrus had the best range in the American League, turned 20 more double plays in 5 less games, and showed flashes of Rey Ordonez with his footwork and arm deep in the hole. The one blemish on Andrus was his 22 errors, but with Chris Davis and Hank Blalock splitting time at first, even Ray Sanchez would've made a handful of additional errors.

Outfield: Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz, Carl Crawford- Tori Hunter once again took home an undeserved Gold Glove. Hunter's mediocre play in center is annually overlooked because of a few ESPN highlight reals in which he hops the wall and snatches a ball headed for the rocks. ACTA Sports featured an article on this very subject, and emphasized the fact that Tori Hunter is in the middle of the league in runs saved every season. The Mariners' Franklin Gutierrez was arguably the best outfielder in the MLB in 2009, featuring the highest UZR (29.1) of any player at any position in either league. While Tori Hunter is lauded for his homerun snatches, Gutierrez even outmatched Hunter in that area as well--stealing one more home run than Hunter by season's end. Gutierrez's package of range, arm and route-running are the best in the MLB, period.

Ichiro Suzuki added one more Gold Glove to his trophy case, and deservedly so. Suzuki still features a cannon, and base-runners rarely test it anymore, resulting in a large amount of runs-saved every season. Suzuki was third in the AL with 11.1 runs saved and third amoung AL right-fielders in UZR. However, Nelson Cruz played slghtly better than Ichiro in 2009, posting a better UZR, saving more runs with his arm, posting an equivalent fielding percentage and doing it in on a team sans Endy Chavez and Frank Gutierrez.

Carl Crawford doesn't have the arm that Nelson Cruz or Adam Jones has, but his range and improved route-running have boosted him up to third among AL-outfielders in UZR. Crawford's style of play is fun to watch, but his value of play is even greater. Crawford once again had run-saving range behind only Franky Gutierrez and Ryan Sweeney, and exhibited an accurate arm in left and center.

Ryan Sweeney is a guy that has been overlooked for his defense thus far in his career. Sweeney has proven to be a fairly complete package--albeit with little power-- mixing a .290ish batting average, doubles power and outfield defense that rated (statistically) second only to Gutierrez in the AL in 2009. Sweeney's arm is strong, and although his range isn't a match for Grady Sizemore, his routes to drifting and fading fly-balls are some of the best in the game.

Pitcher: Mark Buerhle, Chicago White Sox- Not only was Buerhle the most reliable pitcher with the glove in 2009, but he also managed to lead the American League in pickoffs with 8 (2 more than Andy Pettitte's 6). Buerhle's defense is valuable, and his pick-off move--a tick lesser than Pettitte's- keeps even the quickest of baserunners leaning towards first.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Meet Joe Black: Greg Desme Wins 2009 Joe Black AFL MVP Award

Please read my Top 200 MLB Prospects for 2010 sections, below this article.

This past week, Oakland Atletics prospect and Phoenix Desert Dogs outfielder Gregory "Grant" Desme was bestowed with the 2010 Joe Black MVP Award for his fantastic performance throughout five weeks in the Arizona Fall League. Desme led the league in homeruns (11) and extra based hits (16), while coming in second in RBIs (27), runs scored (30) and OPS (1.079). Desme's 11 home runs were third most over the past five seasons, behind only Brandon Wood's 14 dingers (the AFL record) in 2005 and Tyler Flowers' 12 in 2008. Desme also nearly doubled the second highest number of homers--Brandon Laird's and Corey Brown's 6.

Desme, a second round pick from the 2007 draft, emerged as solid prospect in 2009 after spending much of the past two seasons in the trainer's room and in a hospital bed recovering from shoulder surgery and a broken wrist. This past season, Grant Desme was the only player in the minors to hit at least thirty home runs and steal at least thirty bases. Spending the season in the Midwest League and California League, the twenty-three year-old totaled 31 home runs, 40 total bases (he was caught just 5 times) and posted an OPS of .933 while striking out 148 times in 486 at bats. Desme has netted positive reviews from scouts for his work ethic, quiet demeanor and power, receiving red pen only for his trouble with strikeouts and the few holes in his swing. Although Desme stole 40 bases, most scouts are in a consensus that his speed will just be above-average at the MLB level--maybe 20 stolen bases over a full season--and his baserunning instincts and first-to-third speed are what swiped 40 bases.

A shortstop and centerfielder in college at San Diego State and then California Polytech, Desme has always shown great bat speed. The young slugger could certainly hit 20-25 homeruns in the MLB annually-- if all goes according to plan development-wise. His bat control is solid, but lags considerably behind his bat speed and will have to improve if he wants to hit near .280 and strike out less than 25% of the time in the MLB. His defense is above average, and although he profiles best in left field, he's very capable of playing center and has the abilities to be a backup at second or third base in the MLB. With another year's worth of healing time for his labrum and wrist, Desme could certainly improve upon his impressive 2009 numbers and will eventually find himself playing at least semi-regularly in the MLB. He's already proven that he can handle the top young pitchers in the minors with his gaudy AFL performance, so with a few more years of seasoning, Desme could--perhaps--be a legitimate 20-20 threat and solid outfielder in the MLB. His stolen base numbers will be a bit behind, but his MLB play and stats could be a lot like Eric Byrnes'.

Although AFL numbers can often be misleading, with past MVP's and league standouts being Minor League burnouts like Eric Duncan and Chris Shelton, some of the best young players have used the AFL to make a name for themselves-- players like the 2008 MVP Tommy Hanson, and 2008 draft pick Gordon Beckham. Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun and Yunel Escobar were other young standout batters that have previously lit up the AFL.

Other 2009 AFL standouts were Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro, White Sox third baseman Brent Morel, Yankees third baseman Brandon Laird, Reds outfielder Chris Heisey, Nationals pitchers Drew Storen and Stephen Strasburg, and Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata. Strasburg led the league in wins with 4, and outside of one ERA-inflating shelling, dominated the AFL. Ignoring his second appearance, Strasburg struck out 19 in 16.1 innings and gave up just two runs in that four-game span. Storen was tied for the league lead in ERA (.66) and struck out 13 and went a perfect 4/4 in save opportunities in 13 innings of work. The youngest player of the AFL leaders, Starlin Castro, flashed a slick glove at short and was third in stolen bases (9) and sixth in batting average (.376). White Sox prospect, Brent Morel, also flashed a nice glove, playing his sparkling defense while leading the league in batting average (.435) over 62 at bats. The biggest surprise of the above players was Yankees third base prospect, Brandon Laird--younger brother of Gerald Laird. The young third baseman was tied for second place in home runs and received a handful of votes for the Joe Black MVP Award.